ELECTIONS BRIEFING No 1 -
14 AUGUST 2012
With just two months to go until Venezuela’s presidential elections on 7 October, a study of recent opinion polls has shown a clear lead for Hugo Chavez over his main rival Henrique Capriles Radonski.
The study shows Hugo Chavez has a lead of between 15-27% in each of the 8 polls examined (see table below).
The study is based on all polls published in July by the major polling companies that carry out polls in Venezuela (with data collected in the last week of June and during July 2012).
It includes pollsters that had some of the most accurate final predictions for the two previous elections that determined whether Hugo Chavez would be Venezuela’s President.
The strong lead for Hugo Chavez in these polls is consistent with the ongoing high satisfaction rating for his government which a range of polls have shown is regularly around 60%.
Commenting on the study carried out by the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign, Dr Francisco Dominguez, VSC Secretary, said:
“This study clearly shows that Hugo Chavez has a strong lead in the polls.
Whilst the campaign of the other main contender for the presidency, Henrique Capriles Radonski, has sought to confuse the issue by claiming that the race is close, this is clearly contradicted by the data coming out from the major polling companies.
This lead ought to be reflected in the media’s coverage of the election. It certainly would be inaccurate for media coverage to claim that the race currently appears to be close.
This strong lead is also the backdrop against which there are concerns that some opponents of the current government are now preparing to try to de-legitimatize any Hugo Chavez victory by bringing into question the electoral process - despite Venezuela’s elections regularly being deemed free and fair by a broad range of international observers".
Voting intention (%) – Polls July 2012
| ||||||
Pollster
|
Sample date
|
Sample size
|
Support for Hugo Chávez
|
Support for Henrique Capriles Radonski
|
Lead for Hugo Chavez
|
Note
|
Consultores 30-11
|
16-18 July
|
3210
|
58.6
|
31.3
|
27.3
|
Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes “don’t knows/would not says”
|
International Consulting Services
|
14 - 18 July
|
-
|
62.6
|
37.4
|
25.2
|
Results after excluding “don’t knows/would not says”
|
International Consulting Services *
|
14 - 18 July
|
-
|
57.2
|
34.1
|
23.1
|
1. Same sample as above poll.
2. This version includes “don’t knows/would not says”
|
Datanalisis
|
14-23 June
|
1300
|
46.1
|
30.8
|
15.3
|
Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes “don’t knows/would not says”
|
IVAD
|
5-15 July
|
1200
|
52.3
|
32
|
20.3
|
Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes “don’t knows/would not says”
|
Hinterlaces
|
4-14 July
|
1500
|
61
|
39
|
22
|
Results after excluding “don’t knows/would not says”
|
International Consulting Services
|
23-27 June
|
2200
|
59.1
|
33.9
|
25.2
|
Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes “don’t knows/would not says”
|
Hinterlaces
|
16-24 June
|
1300
|
52
|
31
|
21
|
Support for the two candidates does not add up to 100% as the survey includes “don’t knows/would not says”
|
Notes
1. The survey of the polls was carried out by the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign from 5-6 August.
2. In previous presidential elections Hugo Chavez has won with the following results:
· 2006: 63%: 37%
· 2000: 60%: 38%
· 1998: 56%:40%
Hugo Chavez also won a referendum on whether his term of office should be terminated early in 2004 by a margin of 59%:41%
3. For more information contact Venezuela Solidarity Campaign on info@venezuelasolidarity.co.uk or on 0208 800 4281
